ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102010 
SPC MCD 102010 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-102215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 102010Z - 102215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Watch likely by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...A boundary has become more diffuse as if lifts north
across southern Wisconsin over the past hour with occasional
convective attempts. If storms go up along this boundary, a watch
may be needed soon as extreme instability (MLCAPE around 4500 J/kg)
should support explosive storm development. Averaged effective shear
between KGRB and KDVN 19Z RAOBs shows around 25 knots. This would be
sufficient for multicell storm modes with a threat for both large
hail and damaging winds. 

However, even if storms do not develop along this boundary, a watch
is likely eventually as storms move in from the west. Storms across
eastern Iowa have started to organize and it appears they may be
clustering in northeast Iowa. This may be the beginning of upscale
growth into an MCS which would likely track across southern
Wisconsin. A watch is likely by 21Z.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43299028 43969021 44618952 44758812 44228746 43448777
            42738771 42288769 41938794 41648900 41688989 41909012
            42419050 42949038 43299028 

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