Mesoscale Discussion 1477
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1050 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern OH...the extreme northern
   WV Panhandle...and western/central PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111550Z - 111745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least an isolated damaging wind threat may continue
   with storms through the early afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms with a history of producing
   near-severe wind gusts is presently moving eastward across far
   eastern OH late this morning.  Although some weak convective
   inhibition remains in the boundary layer per recent mesoanalysis
   estimates, continued diurnal heating should erode this inhibition
   within the next couple of hours. A rather moist low-level airmass is
   present downstream of the ongoing convection, with with surface
   dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Although the low-level
   winds across western PA are not overly strong per KPBZ VWPs, there
   is some increase to around 30-35 kt of westerly flow around 6 km
   AGL. This may be enough to support continued modest storm
   organization. Steepening low-level lapses promoting efficient
   downward momentum transfer and a linear mode both suggest that at
   least isolated damaging wind gusts should be the main threat with
   this activity through the early afternoon. Depending on convective
   intensity trends over the next hour or two, Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance is possible.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40468143 40758088 41588079 41597871 41317812 40307843
               39827891 39777962 40158096 40468143