ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121503 
SPC MCD 121503 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-121730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Areas affected...northern and central NY...VT...northern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121503Z - 121730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will most likely be needed by
the early afternoon timeframe as storms develop/intensify. 
Strong/severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be possible with the more
intense downdrafts.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows an MCV near the eastern
shore of Lake Ontario quickly moving northeast and paralleling the
international border.  To the east through south of the mid-level
feature, heating is occurring under mostly clear skies to areas of
stratocumulus.  Surface conditions as of 1050am on the NY Mesonet
show temperatures ranging from the mid 70s beneath the cloud patches
to lower 80s.  Dewpoints range from 69-74 deg F.

The Fort Drum, NY (KTYX) and Buffalo, NY (KBUF) VAD data show a belt
of flow 35-50 kt around 3 km AGL.  The VAD data is similar to the
strength of flow (40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) sampled by the
12z Buffalo, NY raob.  

As the airmass continues to destabilize and yield moderate buoyancy
by midday (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expecting storms to develop and
increase in coverage through mid afternoon across central/northern
NY.  Clusters of strong to severe storms are possible resulting in
damaging/locally severe gusts (50-65 mph).  Scattered wind damage
will be possible with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts.

..Smith/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   41917681 43237592 44467577 45007480 44967182 43177231
            41977452 41557579 41917681 

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