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Mesoscale Discussion 1648
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1648
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

   Areas affected...northern/eastern Mississippi into western Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301702Z - 301930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible within an outer
   convective band from northern Mississippi into western/central
   Alabama, but potential currently appears too low for a watch.
   Embedded areas of rotation or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled
   out.

   DISCUSSION...Several shallow convective elements are noted on radar
   from northwest of Columbus MS to near Centreville AL, with stronger
   storms continuing southward into tornado watch 475.

   Objective analysis shows the more favorable instability into central
   AL where MLCAPE is near 500 J/kg, while values are only near 250
   J/kg along the MS/AL border. Low-level shear is currently maximized
   over central and eastern MS, with 0-1 km SRH over 300 m2/s2.
   Meanwhile, these shear values drop to around 150 m2/s2 over central
   AL.

   There may be a region of shear/instability overlap from northeast MS
   into western AL this afternoon which could support increasing
   rotation within the convective line. At this time, the threat is low
   for tornadoes, but storm trends will continue to be monitored for
   increasing rotation potential.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33378662 32988661 32728675 32618706 32628726 32758751
               33308832 33628889 33788934 33878971 34328988 34898935
               34908825 34778775 34438722 33998680 33378662 

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Page last modified: August 30, 2021
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