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Mesoscale Discussion 1651
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1651
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

   Areas affected...central into southern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

   Valid 301954Z - 302200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail continues across central North
   Dakota, and a few additional cells may develop through late
   afternoon. Watch expansion may be considered.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of cells, some severe, continue to move very
   slowly southeastward, near the Bismarck area. The southward motion
   of the most intense cell suggests the storm is now ingesting surface
   air. Given the favorable time of day, cells should maintain strength
   and may increase in intensity.

   West of the watch, visible satellite shows a cumulus field into
   southwest ND, coincident with a surface heating axis. Here,
   instability is maximized, and several models suggest isolated cells
   developing. If this occurs, large hail will be likely, and
   additional counties may need to be added into watch 476.

   By evening, storms may shift into SD, necessitating watch
   consideration there. Large hail should continue to be the main risk
   across northern SD.

   ..Jewell.. 08/30/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45420011 45450164 45490223 45710281 46250312 46560319
               47070287 47620256 47920209 47870165 47460110 46770029
               46479989 46009971 45629976 45489977 45420011 

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