Mesoscale Discussion 1653
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302051Z - 302215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms ongoing may be capable of a
   damaging gust or two into this evening. Given low
   coverage/organization a weather watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters
   of thunderstorms ongoing across the Mid Atlantic and Virginia. These
   storms were located on the periphery of surface high pressure where
   SPC mesoanalysis showed warm temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s
   and 70s F were contributing to 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical
   shear remains quite weak with less than 20 kt depicted from regional
   VWPs. Thus, many of these storms have exhibited limited organization
   with a primarily multicell/pulse storm mode. However,
   temperature/dewpoint spreads near 25 degrees F may support a few
   stronger downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts this afternoon
   and early evening. As storms continue to move to the south and east,
   gradual weakening is expected as diurnal heating diminishes. Given
   the limited potential for organized severe weather, a watch is not
   expected. However, a few strong wind gusts may occur.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 08/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37607951 38597847 39377670 39757567 39957482 39417490
               39017537 38687596 38247677 37817719 37557738 37337757
               37257805 37217864 37267928 37297948 37607951