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Mesoscale Discussion 1658
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1658
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0431 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

   Areas affected...East central/southeast AL and west central GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 310931Z - 311100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A low-end threat for a brief/weak tornado or two will
   persist this morning, but a watch is not anticipated in the short

   DISCUSSION...The primary confluence band, to the east of the remnant
   center of tropical cyclone Ida, extends from south central into east
   central AL.  A narrow corridor of 73-74 F surface dewpoints extends
   along this confluence zone, where buoyancy is relatively larger and
   coincident with the belt of stronger low-level shear/SRH.  Buoyancy
   is marginal for a supercell/tornado threat, but there is enough CAPE
   to support updrafts producing lightning, so an isolated/weak tornado
   will still be possible with the more persistent supercell structures
   in the confluence band.  Given that this is still well before the
   diurnal heating cycle, the prospects for much ramp up in the tornado
   threat appear limited.  Thus, a watch is not anticipated in the next
   couple of hours.

   ..Thompson.. 08/31/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32988590 33878565 33968519 33808483 33368485 32688510
               32078556 31468598 31338639 31458662 32388612 32988590 

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