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Mesoscale Discussion 1872
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1872
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

   Areas affected...Southeastern PA...Eastern MD...NJ...DE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161750Z - 161945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Line of showers and thunderstorms moving into eastern
   PA/MD may produce a few damaging wind gusts as it continues eastward
   over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A modest increase in reflectivity has been noted within
   the showers/deeper convection along the leading edge of the cold
   front moving through the region over the past half hour or so. The
   downstream air mass has heated into the upper 70s/low 80s amid mid
   60s dewpoints. As a result, a modest increase in buoyancy has
   occurred, with mesoanalysis estimated MLCAPE around 250 J/kg from
   eastern MD northward to the northern PA/NJ border vicinity. This
   region is displaced south of the better forcing for ascent and
   stronger flow aloft. However, enhanced low-level flow (sampled well
   by the DOX and DIX VAD profiles) still appears strong enough to
   support a damaging wind threat with any deeper, more persistent
   cells. Uncertainty regarding overall coverage of strong storms
   precludes higher watch probability, but convective trends will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 10/16/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40487634 41027584 41027453 40397453 38917547 38777721
               39907655 40487634 

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