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Mesoscale Discussion 1896
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MD 1896 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1896
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0933 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

   Areas affected...Northern/West-Central AR...Southeast OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 532...

   Valid 250233Z - 250400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 532 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two is
   expected to continue for the next few hours. An additional watch
   will likely be needed over portions of the region before Tornado
   Watch 532 expires at 04Z.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to progress
   eastward from north-central AR southwestward into southeast OK. A
   few storms did show some organization earlier, but now much of the
   activity has transitioned back to a somewhat disorganized mode along
   the front. The only exception is the cell in Johnson County AR which
   has recently strengthened. Additionally, a few more discrete storms
   have begun to develop within the warm sector ahead of the line. 

   The low-level kinematic environment throughout the warm sector is
   quite impressive. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 0-1 km
   storm-relative helicity is over 300 m2/s2 across
   north-central/northeast AR. As a result, the threat for tornadoes
   still exists with any more discrete storms that can maintain a
   robust updraft. Strong wind gusts are the primary threat with any
   storms along the front.

   Given the current storm motion, expectation for the severe threat to
   persist, and a watch expiration time of 04Z, an additional watch
   will likely be needed over portions of the region to cover the
   continuing threat.

   ..Mosier.. 10/25/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34749523 35599394 36039345 36419304 36469278 36389108
               34849193 34259277 34339536 34749523 

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