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Mesoscale Discussion 8
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0008
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

   Areas affected...Central KY...Middle TN...Northern AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

   Valid 011838Z - 012015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gust and tornadoes continues
   across central KY and middle TN within Tornado Watch 3. This threat
   will persist downstream into more of central KY, middle TN, and
   northern AL, where a watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Recent observations place the outflow boundary from
   about 20 miles south of LEX southwestward to just southeast of BWG,
   continuing southeastward through western TN to about 20 miles
   southeast of MEM. Numerous shallow but strong/organized cells have
   developed along this outflow boundary and lightning has become
   slightly more frequent over the last hour. General trend with the
   stronger storms developing within the line is for an initially
   cell-in-line structure with a strong, more organized updraft. This
   more cellular structure then relatively quickly trends towards
   bowing line segments as the outflow boundary continues pushing
   southeastward. As such, a relatively brief period for tornadogenesis
   exists before the storms then transition to more of a damaging wind
   threat. Initial, more discrete development has also occurred
   sporadically ahead of the line, with a longer duration of more
   cellular structure contributing to a slightly greater tornado risk.
   These storms also trend towards bowing line segments as the outflow
   overtakes them.

   This overall pattern is expected to continue for at least the next
   few hours as the outflow pushes quickly eastward/southeastward.
   Current motion places the outflow near the edge of Tornado Watch 3
   by 1930Z-2000Z. Winds are currently a bit more veered downstream,
   but vertical shear remains very strong. As such, supercells capable
   of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible and a
   downstream watch will likely be needed.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/01/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35518803 37678460 37948362 37398336 35868422 34328628
               34558806 35518803 

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