ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 030925 SPC MCD 030925 NCZ000-SCZ000-031200- Mesoscale Discussion 0027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022 Areas affected...Parts of eastern South Carolina into the North Carolina coastal plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030925Z - 031200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Discrete supercell development with the potential to produce tornadoes appears relatively low, but may not be completely negligible, and could still increase, particularly near North Carolina coastal areas between Wilmington and Morehead City by 6-8 AM EST. DISCUSSION...The surface cyclone center migrating across the South Carolina Piedmont is now below 1000 mb, with continued deepening ongoing near/north through east of Columbia. Although models suggest that this may cease as it migrates into the North Carolina coast plain through 12-15Z, low-level shear beneath 70+ kt southerly 850 mb flow within the warm sector will remain extreme. Low-level hodographs likely will also remain characterized by at least some clockwise curvature, and the environment appears at least conditionally conducive to the development of supercell structures with the potential to produce tornadoes, as a 100 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak noses across the region, to the southeast of a compact deepening mid-level low. However, while scattered thunderstorm development is underway and likely to continue, various model forecast soundings suggest that the near-surface lapse rates within the warm sector inland of coastal areas remain stable to moist adiabatic at best. Barring the inland advection of a more seasonably warm and moist boundary (which appears to include mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points), it appears that this will remain the case and continue to inhibit a substantive severe weather threat. Latest forecast soundings from the Rapid Refresh and NAM do suggest that an influx of more moist and unstable air into North Carolina coastal areas northeast of Wilmington, and particularly around the Morehead City area, is possible toward 11-13Z. This could provide a window of opportunity for increasing potential for tornadoes, including the risk for a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 01/03/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34548114 34887881 35257762 35387685 35577546 34907514 34277739 33837838 33447879 32738009 32668057 33978077 34548114 NNNN