ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 081733 SPC MCD 081733 LAZ000-TXZ000-082000- Mesoscale Discussion 0045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Sat Jan 08 2022 Areas affected...Parts of Southeast TX...far southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081733Z - 082000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of brief tornadoes and isolated marginal wind and hail will gradually increase by early this afternoon and persist through most of the day. At this time, watch issuance is considered unlikely due to the relatively low-end and unfocused nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms are gradually increasing across parts of southeast TX late this morning. This activity is occurring within a low-level warm advection regime, as a surface warm front gradually moves northward across the southeast TX coastal plain. South of the front, rich low-level moisture (low 70s F dewpoints) is noted, and MLCAPE has increased to greater than 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses. Additional convection is likely to develop through the afternoon, as a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough passes to the north across north TX/southern OK. Convection developing near the front will tend to quickly become elevated, but additional storms may develop across the warm sector this afternoon. Favorable low-level helicity (0-1 km SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2 per recent VWPs from HGX) will support a brief tornado threat with any stronger cells near and just north of the warm front, though rather weak midlevel flow and deep-layer shear may tend to limit the potential for longer-lived supercells. Isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will also be possible. Multiple rounds of convection are expected across portions of the MCD area through the afternoon into this evening, resulting in a long duration of relatively low-end severe threat. Watch issuance is unlikely, unless a more focused area of somewhat greater risk becomes apparent. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/08/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 28569609 29259620 30569643 30879616 31149553 31389488 31419403 31259372 30839353 30239336 29919343 29759353 29499422 28999501 28659556 28539589 28569609 NNNN