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Mesoscale Discussion 55
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0941 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Areas affected...central MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091541Z - 091815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A slow but gradual increase in a risk for damaging gusts
   and/or a brief/weak tornado, is expected through the late morning
   into the early afternoon.  The corresponding need for a possible
   tornado watch will correspondingly increase, but largely be dictated
   by storm-term observational trends over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of organized but transient
   storm structures over west-central MS this morning.  This area of
   convection is near but to the north and northeast of richer
   low-level moisture characterized by upper 60s F dewpoints over
   central LA and southern MS to the south of I-20.  Continued
   low-level moisture advection will lead to some weak destabilization
   over east-central MS where buoyancy is currently limited as of mid
   morning.  A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue eastward
   across the lower MS Valley today and will at least marginally
   support some focus for thunderstorm activity from near the MS River
   east into parts of western AL later today.  The development of weak
   surface-based destabilization resulting in 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE will
   offer a conditional risk for isolated instances of low CAPE/high
   shear supercells.  The increase in mid-level flow associated with
   the aforementioned mid-level disturbance is already being sampled by
   the KDGX VAD during the past few hours.  As such, a gradual increase
   in the risk for organized storms and an associated isolated severe
   threat is expected.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 01/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32679102 32828902 32528857 32158863 31659075 32149118
               32679102 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2022
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