Mesoscale Discussion 0056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022
Areas affected...east-central MS...far western AL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...
Valid 091702Z - 091900Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms have begun to organize during the past hour over
central MS. The magnitude of low-level moisture, and whether or not
the richer moisture reaches the I-20 corridor, will likely prove
critical for the tornado risk over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KDGX (Jackson, MS) shows a
south-southwest to north-northeast band of intensifying
thunderstorms (echo tops increasing to 35-40 kft) as storms begin to
organize. The primary uncertainty for tornado development during
the next 1-2 hours is the richness of low-level moisture immediately
ahead of the thunderstorms. Surface observations show temperatures
in the upper 60s at Hattiesburg/Laurel, MS with upper 60s dewpoints.
Farther northeast, only a 60 deg F dewpoint was recorded at
Meridian, MS as of 10am CST. A maritime warm front is advancing
northward between the two cities and it is uncertain whether the
richer moisture will advect northward in time to be available within
the inflow of the developing storms. If this richer moisture does
manage to reach near the I-20 corridor, it would seem the greater
buoyancy available would support an increased risk for a tornado, in
addition to isolated damaging gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32568914 32638827 32338805 32008828 31848974 32188963