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Mesoscale Discussion 57
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0057
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Areas affected...Southern Louisiana into far southwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091838Z - 092045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely intensify in the coming hours
   and may pose a severe hail/wind threat for portions of southern
   Louisiana and far southwest Mississippi. However, a watch is not
   anticipated given the limited nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...There has been a notable uptick in convective activity
   along a trailing surface trough from far southwest MS into
   south-central LA. MRMS vertical ice and echo top data, as well as
   lightning trends, have shown deeper convective cores that have
   persisted longer than previous attempts at convective initiation.
   This is likely the result of strong diurnal warming along and ahead
   of the trough across southern LA where temperatures have warmed into
   the mid/upper 70s. The combination of stronger diurnal warming and a
   moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the low 70s) is boosting MLCAPE
   to around 1000-2000 J/kg per latest RAP mesoanalysis and forecast
   soundings. While this region is somewhat displaced from the stronger
   flow aloft to the north, 30-40 knot mid-level flow is supporting
   around 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear over the region. While
   somewhat marginal, deep-layer flow is slightly off-boundary, which
   may support a few stronger cells that acquire supercell
   characteristics. Veered low-level flow ahead of the trough will
   limit the tornado potential, though damaging winds and severe hail
   are possible. Given the marginal shear environment, a watch is not

   ..Moore/Hart.. 01/09/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30809302 31329241 31719129 31509044 31129019 30539050
               30039106 29779187 29739250 29849346 30099353 30389344

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