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Mesoscale Discussion 58
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0058
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Areas affected...southwest and south-central AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

   Valid 091909Z - 092115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado risk will likely focus/maximize this afternoon
   over southwest into south-central AL as storms move east into the
   area during peak heating while maintaining quasi-discrete structure.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a squall line early this afternoon
   over central AL with a broken band of quasi-discrete updrafts
   farther southwest into southeast MS moving east into parts of
   southwest AL.  The northward advection of richer low-level moisture
   (surface dewpoints rising into the mid 60s F) will combine with
   modest heating to yield appreciable buoyancy for strong updraft
   development.  The stronger updrafts over southeast MS are
   supercellular and will likely maintain a quasi-discrete storm mode
   due to the lack of stronger forcing promoting quick upscale growth. 
   Furthermore, it seems the developing supercells in southeast MS will
   intensify further during peak heating and likely reach a mature
   phase over southwest AL into south-central AL.  The risk for a
   tornado will correspondingly increase and maximize in the vicinity
   of the I-65 corridor in southwest AL east-northeastward to the west
   of Montgomery during the 200-430pm CST period.  As storms move east
   of the discussion area into parts of southeast AL, uncertainty due
   to less-favorable convective mode and being beyond peak heating may
   combine to lower the tornado risk.  However, convective trends will
   be monitored over the next few hours for the possibility for a watch
   extension-in-area or an additional small tornado watch to the east
   of tornado watch #14 in parts of southeast AL.

   ..Smith.. 01/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31698830 32218799 32358692 32078679 31728709 31528748
               31518812 31698830 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2022
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