ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091909 
SPC MCD 091909 
ALZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

Areas affected...southwest and south-central AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

Valid 091909Z - 092115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado risk will likely focus/maximize this afternoon
over southwest into south-central AL as storms move east into the
area during peak heating while maintaining quasi-discrete structure.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a squall line early this afternoon
over central AL with a broken band of quasi-discrete updrafts
farther southwest into southeast MS moving east into parts of
southwest AL.  The northward advection of richer low-level moisture
(surface dewpoints rising into the mid 60s F) will combine with
modest heating to yield appreciable buoyancy for strong updraft
development.  The stronger updrafts over southeast MS are
supercellular and will likely maintain a quasi-discrete storm mode
due to the lack of stronger forcing promoting quick upscale growth. 
Furthermore, it seems the developing supercells in southeast MS will
intensify further during peak heating and likely reach a mature
phase over southwest AL into south-central AL.  The risk for a
tornado will correspondingly increase and maximize in the vicinity
of the I-65 corridor in southwest AL east-northeastward to the west
of Montgomery during the 200-430pm CST period.  As storms move east
of the discussion area into parts of southeast AL, uncertainty due
to less-favorable convective mode and being beyond peak heating may
combine to lower the tornado risk.  However, convective trends will
be monitored over the next few hours for the possibility for a watch
extension-in-area or an additional small tornado watch to the east
of tornado watch #14 in parts of southeast AL.

..Smith.. 01/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31698830 32218799 32358692 32078679 31728709 31528748
            31518812 31698830 

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