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Mesoscale Discussion 59
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0059
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

   Valid 092143Z - 092345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue across much of Tornado
   Watch 14 for the next 1-2 hours before gradually diminishing this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from across southern MS/AL continues
   to show several clusters of semi-discrete cells. These storms have
   shown periods of organized mesocyclones, but have struggled to
   persist for more than an hour or two, largely due to destructive
   storm interference. However, IR imagery and MRMS vertically
   integrated ice data continue to show indications of strong updrafts,
   and the overall environment over southern/southwest AL remains
   supportive of a severe threat given sufficient buoyancy (500-1000
   J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer shear (around 30-40 knots of effective
   bulk shear per latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates). Furthermore,
   regional VWPs within the warm sector reveal 100-150 SRH in the 0-1
   km layer, which will help maintain the potential for organized
   low-level mesocyclones and an attendant tornado threat. This tornado
   threat will likely be maximized with any storm that can remain
   relatively isolated as it matures. At this time, this appears most
   probable across southern AL. 

   Latest forecast guidance shows low-level wind fields gradually
   weakening after 22-23 UTC from west to east as the axis of stronger
   850 mb flow shifts east. While this will diminish the tornado
   potential to a degree, a severe hail/wind threat may persist into
   the evening hours.

   ..Moore.. 01/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31418876 32038775 32338652 32448556 32188520 31818529
               31488609 31248690 30978816 30908854 31128877 31418876 

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Page last modified: January 09, 2022
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