|Mesoscale Discussion 59|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022
Areas affected...Southern Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...
Valid 092143Z - 092345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue across much of Tornado
Watch 14 for the next 1-2 hours before gradually diminishing this
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from across southern MS/AL continues
to show several clusters of semi-discrete cells. These storms have
shown periods of organized mesocyclones, but have struggled to
persist for more than an hour or two, largely due to destructive
storm interference. However, IR imagery and MRMS vertically
integrated ice data continue to show indications of strong updrafts,
and the overall environment over southern/southwest AL remains
supportive of a severe threat given sufficient buoyancy (500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer shear (around 30-40 knots of effective
bulk shear per latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates). Furthermore,
regional VWPs within the warm sector reveal 100-150 SRH in the 0-1
km layer, which will help maintain the potential for organized
low-level mesocyclones and an attendant tornado threat. This tornado
threat will likely be maximized with any storm that can remain
relatively isolated as it matures. At this time, this appears most
probable across southern AL.
Latest forecast guidance shows low-level wind fields gradually
weakening after 22-23 UTC from west to east as the axis of stronger
850 mb flow shifts east. While this will diminish the tornado
potential to a degree, a severe hail/wind threat may persist into
the evening hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31418876 32038775 32338652 32448556 32188520 31818529
31488609 31248690 30978816 30908854 31128877 31418876
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