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Mesoscale Discussion 60
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0060
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern MS...southern AL...the FL
   Panhandle...and southwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092256Z - 100100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading southeastward of
   WW14, though the localized and brief nature of the threat will
   likely preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue spreading
   southeastward into parts of southeastern MS, southern AL, the FL
   Panhandle, and southwest GA over the next few hours, where a moist
   boundary-layer (lower 70s dewpoints) and southerly surface winds are
   contributing to moderate surface-based instability. VWPs across the
   pre-convective warm sector indicate favorable low-level hodographs,
   with 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60
   knots. These factors may support a brief continuation of organized
   convection prior to being undercut, with a mix of supercell
   structures and linear segments possible. The primary risk will be
   isolated wind damage, though a brief tornado will also be possible
   with any discrete and longer-lived convection. At this time, a new
   watch is not anticipated owing to the localized and brief nature of
   the threat.

   ..Weinman/Grams.. 01/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29998863 30078962 31008968 31568665 32128523 32748462
               32978425 32498353 31568351 30358426 29588479 29498535
               30258639 29998863 

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Page last modified: January 10, 2022
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