ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021715 
SPC MCD 021715 
TXZ000-OKZ000-022115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas...and western North Texas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 021715Z - 022115Z

SUMMARY...Sleet and freezing rain will become more likely this
afternoon. A gradual transition to snow will occur from northwest to
southeast. Precipitation will be slow to progress east, allowing
these conditions to persist into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...An area of precipitation developed early this morning
across portions of the Hill Country. Dry mid-level air was observed
on the 12Z MAF and FWD soundings. Current surface observations show
that this dry layer is in the process of becoming saturated.
Continued approach of the mid-level trough in the Southwest will aid
in precipitation becoming more widespread later today. Along with
modest cold air advection at the surface, areas experiencing heavier
precipitation will have potential to evaporatively cool to at or
below freezing. Forecast soundings suggest that the depth of the
near-surface cold air will be sufficient to produce sleet. Freezing
rain becomes more probable along the southeastern fringes of the
precipitation, however. Snow is more likely to occur to the
northwest as the warm 850-700 mb warm layer will be quicker to erode
there.

..Wendt.. 02/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31630135 31750188 32120209 32470167 33360079 34149929
            34249810 33859772 33289787 32389915 31750046 31600102
            31630135 

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