Mesoscale Discussion 0115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 PM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central into northern Texas...southeast
   Oklahoma...western into central Arkansas

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 030553Z - 031200Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain with a transition to a wintry mix is
   expected across portions of central and northern Texas towards
   Arkansas over the next few hours. The best chance for ice accretions
   will be from northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...A deep-layer moisture plume continues to overspread the
   southern Plains into the Ozark Valley, and is gradually tracking
   eastward with time in tandem with a broader mid-level trough. A
   broad southwest-northeast oriented precipitation swath has promoted
   a mix of freezing rain and occasionally sleet across southwest to
   northeast TX into AR over the past few hours per surface
   observations. The surface freezing line remains in place roughly
   from Val Verde to Lamar County TX up to Pope County, AR. The best
   chance for 0.05-0.10 inch/hr ice accretion rates continues to be
   just north-northeast of the DFW metroplex into central AR, where
   surface temperatures have been below freezing the longest, and where
   enough warm-air advection in the 850-700 mb layer will support
   rainfall, before cooler low-level temperatures usher in and support
   more of a freezing rain/sleet mix. Latest high-resolution guidance,
   including the 00Z HREF and last few runs of the HRRR suggest mainly
   freezing rain and sleet will envelop the DFW metro into central AR
   within the next couple of hours and last through at least 12Z.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30060184 31219990 32059894 33959597 35289434 35949328
               36149190 35579147 34989148 34549181 33849340 33169491
               32489627 31559756 30959828 30449925 30100057 29970136
               30060184