ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 222154 
SPC MCD 222154 
ALZ000-MSZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

Areas affected...Central MS into West-Central/Far Northwestern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 222154Z - 230000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible
from central MS into west-central/far northwestern AL this evening.
Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Coverage and intensity of multicellular thunderstorms
has recently increased across southwest MS, likely a result of
persistent low-level confluence combined with diurnal
destabilization. Expectation is for these storms to continue
northeastward into an environment characterized by slightly less
buoyancy but slightly more vertical shear. As a result, potential
exists for a few of these updrafts to organize into supercells, with
an attendant severe threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado
or two. The severe threat is currently expected to stay isolated,
tempered by the limited buoyancy and lack of stronger large-scale
forcing for ascent. Even so, trends will be monitored closely and a
watch may be needed if storm coverage and intensity continue to
increase.

..Mosier/Hart.. 02/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33289036 34258928 34548842 34498792 34188773 33188788
            32018852 31608928 31629026 32099092 33289036 

NNNN