Mesoscale Discussion 0183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0921 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022

   Areas affected...Southern MO...Far Northern AR

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 241521Z - 241915Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed winter precipitation is expected to increase in
   coverage and intensity across southern Missouri and far northern
   Arkansas over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A low-level jet currently stretches across eastern
   portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. This
   low-level jet is expected to remain largely in place over the next
   few hours while a shortwave trough moves through the southern High
   Plains. Strong warm-air advection is ongoing within this low-level
   jet, contributing to precipitation from northeast TX into central
   MO. This precipitation is developing atop a wedge of cold air, with
   temperatures ranging from the mid 20s from eastern OK northeastward
   across southern MO into southern IL. Temperatures trend colder with
   northward extent, with surface observations indicating upper teens
   across west-central and central MO. Additionally, some modest
   buoyancy has been noted within forecast soundings and confirmed by
   the presence of deeper convection and lightning across northeast OK.

   Expectation is for precipitation coverage to increase across
   southern MO over the next few hours. Thermodynamic profiles appear
   most supportive of freezing rain roughly south of a line from Newton
   County MO northeastward to Cape Girardeau County MO. Sleet appears
   more likely north of this line. Upstream radar reflectivity shows
   numerous intense cells capable of high precipitation rates. Buoyancy
   downstream across southern MO will remain supportive of these higher
   rates for the next few hours. Given recent radar trends, potential
   exists for a corridor of significant ice accumulations across far
   southern MO and far northern AR.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 02/24/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37309466 37659378 37989248 38289032 36828930 36269087
               36029270 35949459 36729488 37309466