ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 191905 SPC MCD 191905 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-192100- Mesoscale Discussion 0286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Areas affected...The Southern Atlantic Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191905Z - 192100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually intensify through the early/mid afternoon amid daytime heating and increasing instability. Main hazards will be hail and strong, damaging winds. Trends will be monitored, but a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery and lightning trends have shown a gradual uptick in convection along and ahead of a weak surface cold front that is pushing east across northern FL, eastern GA, and the Carolinas. Convection thus far has struggled to maintain intensity, likely due to residual capping/poor 850-700 mb lapse rates noted in an 18Z sounding from CHS as well as ACARS soundings from Savannah, GA. Adjusted for recent surface observations that show temperatures in the low/mid 80s, both observed and forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE values should increase to 1000-1500 J/kg along the south Atlantic Coast in the near term. However, the poor mid-level lapse rates may continue to limit the longevity of weaker convective updrafts in the absence of stronger forcing for ascent. Consequently, convective coverage of strong/severe storms is somewhat uncertain and may be limited. Weak hodograph structure (flow weakness) above 2 km is noted in the recent CHS and ACARS soundings, which will further limit the potential for organized storms in the near term. However, forecast soundings suggests the wind profiles across the region will elongate later this afternoon with the approach of stronger mid-level flow. Any storms that can remain sustained may see a gradual intensification through the late afternoon with an attendant hail/wind threat. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is possible if the convective threat appears sufficiently widespread. ..Moore/Guyer.. 03/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31068473 32068364 33058171 33488064 33687969 33437913 33097903 32298021 31458098 30838127 30408162 30298244 30308350 30448425 30558481 31068473 NNNN