ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192202 
SPC MCD 192202 
GAZ000-FLZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022

Areas affected...Southeast GA...Northern FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192202Z - 200000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are possible early
this evening. WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to
steeper low-level lapse rates across the FL Peninsula into coastal
GA early this evening where surface temperatures have warmed into
the lower-mid 80s. A broken squall line, roughly 100 mi in length,
has developed and currently extends from near AYS to southwest of
VLD. This line is moving east-northeast at roughly 30kt within a
modestly sheared environment that is supportive of maintaining an
organized band of convection. Latest radar data suggests marginally
severe hail and gusty winds can be expected with this band of storms
as it propagates toward the Atlantic Coast.

..Darrow/Hart.. 03/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30438364 31458243 32028132 31388071 30168242 30438364 

NNNN