Mesoscale Discussion 0290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

   Areas affected...Southwest TX...TX Big Country

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211657Z - 211900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail are possible
   across southwest TX and the TX Big Country for the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s/lows 70s
   within the clearly west of the warm conveyor but east of the main
   shortwave trough. Agitated cumulus developed quickly within this
   area of clearly over the past half hour, indicative of the limited
   convective inhibition and at least modest forcing for ascent.
   Low-level flow in this region is a bit weaker and less backed than
   areas farther east, while the southerly mid-level is stronger. This
   results in a more southerly deep shear vector, with a
   dryline-parallel orientation. This structure to the wind fields
   suggests a more linear storm structure, somewhat limiting the
   overall severe potential. Even so, a few damaging wind gusts and/or
   isolated instances of hail are still possible over the next few
   hours, and convective trends will be monitored closely. Greater
   severe potential is anticipated later this afternoon northeast/east
   into more of northwest and north-central/central TX.

   ..Mosier.. 03/21/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31400135 32430085 32740020 32449948 31659946 30489976
               30120093 30440168 31400135