ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220351 
SPC MCD 220351 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

Valid 220351Z - 220545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 056.
Tornadoes appear to be the main threat for at least the next few
hours, though damaging gusts may also accompany bowing segments.

DISCUSSION...Two semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across the
Smith/Upshur County Texas area, with another more discrete supercell
in progress across Houston County, with either tornadoes reported or
TDSs detected via KSHV dual-polarimetric radar in both locations.
These storms are progressing in a highly sheared environment, with
the SHV depicting an impressive, large/curved hodograph, with over
500 m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1km layer alone. As such, the tornado threat
is expected to continue across Tornado Watch 056 for at least a few
more hours, as also suggested by the 03Z Warn-on-Forecast ensemble
guidance, with several members showing storms remaining discrete and
robust into the 05-06Z period.

..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31359561 32659516 33299485 33939441 34099385 34119329
            33929318 33209342 32519368 31729395 31389415 31219445
            31199503 31359561 

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