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Mesoscale Discussion 314
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0533 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwest

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...62...

   Valid 222233Z - 230000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61, 62 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
   061-062, with the greatest short-term threat for tornadoes
   associated with supercells along the Mississippi/Alabama border.
   Elsewhere, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany
   stronger line segments.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a broken QLCS from
   the TN/AL border into southeast LA, which continues to progress
   eastward with time. This QLCS has an extensive history of producing
   damaging gusts and tornadoes. Immediately ahead of the squall,
   semi-discrete supercells have recently demonstrated transient
   periods of strong low-level rotation, with up to 40 kt rotational
   velocities noted on some storms (i.e. Wayne County, MS). The 2207Z
   MOB VWP depicts long, curved hodographs, bearing near 400 m2/s2 SRH
   in the 0-1 km layer alone, indicative of ample low-level shear for
   surface-based, sustained supercell structures to produce tornadoes.
   Latest deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance
   also depict an appreciable concentration of mid-level rotation
   tracks along the southeast MS/southwest AL border over the next
   couple of hours, and this is where the greatest short-term tornado
   potential resides. The George County, MS supercell may have the best
   tornado potential since it has the longest residence time in the
   warm sector with unimpeded inflow.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29859127 31389052 32198946 32818851 32778801 32468767
               31798756 31308760 30868786 30448837 30018891 29859127 

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