Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwest
Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...62...
Valid 222233Z - 230000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61, 62 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
061-062, with the greatest short-term threat for tornadoes
associated with supercells along the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Elsewhere, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany
stronger line segments.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a broken QLCS from
the TN/AL border into southeast LA, which continues to progress
eastward with time. This QLCS has an extensive history of producing
damaging gusts and tornadoes. Immediately ahead of the squall,
semi-discrete supercells have recently demonstrated transient
periods of strong low-level rotation, with up to 40 kt rotational
velocities noted on some storms (i.e. Wayne County, MS). The 2207Z
MOB VWP depicts long, curved hodographs, bearing near 400 m2/s2 SRH
in the 0-1 km layer alone, indicative of ample low-level shear for
surface-based, sustained supercell structures to produce tornadoes.
Latest deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance
also depict an appreciable concentration of mid-level rotation
tracks along the southeast MS/southwest AL border over the next
couple of hours, and this is where the greatest short-term tornado
potential resides. The George County, MS supercell may have the best
tornado potential since it has the longest residence time in the
warm sector with unimpeded inflow.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29859127 31389052 32198946 32818851 32778801 32468767
31798756 31308760 30868786 30448837 30018891 29859127