ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241142 
SPC MCD 241142 
VAZ000-NCZ000-241345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NC and southeastern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241142Z - 241345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong/gusty winds and perhaps a
brief tornado may exist this morning. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A low-topped cell in central NC has recently
strengthened and shown signs of low-level rotation. The environment
downstream across central/eastern NC and southeastern VA appears
marginally supportive of surface-based storms, with MLCAPE no more
than 500 J/kg. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt exists
over this region owing to a mid-level jet extending across much of
the East Coast. Recent VWPs from KRAX show modest veering of the
low-level flow, but around 30 kt of speed shear is present in the
0-3 km layer. Both strong/gusty downdraft winds and perhaps a brief
tornado appear possible this morning as convection spreads quickly
northeastward. The current extent of ongoing storms will likely
serve as the northern limit of any appreciable threat in the near
term. Poor lapse rates and limited instability should keep the
overall severe threat rather isolated, and watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 03/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35387884 36337809 36747749 37237638 37407600 37407569
            36937592 36547582 36187581 35517707 35267765 35237837
            35387884 

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