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Mesoscale Discussion 375
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MD 375 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0375
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Georgia into the Carolina Piemont

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...

   Valid 311548Z - 311715Z


   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm
   development, including the risk for supercells capable of producing
   tornadoes, appears increasing probable through 2-4 PM EDT.   Trends
   are being monitored for the possibility that this may require a new
   severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Within the pre-frontal plume of higher precipitable
   water content, which is generally aligned with the strong southerly
   low-level jet (including 50-60 kt around 850 mb), remnant
   convectively generated cloud cover and precipitation is widespread. 
   However, breaks/thin spots in the overcast are allowing for weak
   destabilization of the moistening boundary layer, and this appears
   to be contributing to at least some intensification of embedded
   deeper convection.  Most notably, currently, this includes an
   organizing cell to the west of Waycross GA, but similar
   intensification may be underway across the Piedmont of South
   Carolina.  With increasing breaks in the cloud cover probable into
   early afternoon, these trends may continue.  

   Model forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs near the
   strong 850 jet axis are in the process of becoming characterized by
   increasing clockwise curvature, conducive to the evolution of
   supercells with increasing risk to produce tornadoes.  While these
   may remain isolated to widely scattered due to the limited
   instability, a new severe weather watch may be needed within the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Kerr.. 03/31/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31598323 32928260 34548181 35618094 36147961 35927890
               34777924 33918004 31378173 30858299 31598323 

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