|Mesoscale Discussion 376|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania into western Maryland
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311607Z - 311730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible early this afternoon as
storm develop in western Pennsylvania/Maryland. Storm intensity is
expected to increase later this afternoon into central/eastern
Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. Trends will continue to
be monitored for a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has continued to clear across West Virginia
into western Pennsylvania as mid-level dry air overspreads the area.
Though MLCAPE values remain below 300 J/kg, surface heating has
brought temperatures in southwestern Pennsylvania into the upper 60s
F. Low-level lapse rates are likely steepened enough to support a
risk for damaging wind gusts given 50-60 kts of wind within the
lowest 2 km on regional VAD winds.
Into central Pennsylvania, more time will be require to destabilize
as cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F.
However, with the decreasing cloud cover expected, an increasing
severe risk will probably occur by mid-afternoon. Southerly winds
should advect increasing moisture into the area as well.
Limited buoyancy and veered surface winds in western Pennsylvania
will limit the tornado risk with early activity. Surface winds will
remain more backed in central/eastern Pennsylvania along with
greater 850 mb wind speeds. The greater tornado threat is likely to
exist farther east and later this afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40437993 41577901 41977810 41927725 41767643 41217609
40197634 39587710 39367862 39578019 39958028 40437993
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