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Mesoscale Discussion 376
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MD 376 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania into western Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311607Z - 311730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible early this afternoon as
   storm develop in western Pennsylvania/Maryland. Storm intensity is
   expected to increase later this afternoon into central/eastern
   Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. Trends will continue to
   be monitored for a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has continued to clear across West Virginia
   into western Pennsylvania as mid-level dry air overspreads the area.
   Though MLCAPE values remain below 300 J/kg, surface heating has
   brought temperatures in southwestern Pennsylvania into the upper 60s
   F. Low-level lapse rates are likely steepened enough to support a
   risk for damaging wind gusts given 50-60 kts of wind within the
   lowest 2 km on regional VAD winds.

   Into central Pennsylvania, more time will be require to destabilize
   as cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F.
   However, with the decreasing cloud cover expected, an increasing
   severe risk will probably occur by mid-afternoon. Southerly winds
   should advect increasing moisture into the area as well.

   Limited buoyancy and veered surface winds in western Pennsylvania
   will limit the tornado risk with early activity. Surface winds will
   remain more backed in central/eastern Pennsylvania along with
   greater 850 mb wind speeds. The greater tornado threat is likely to
   exist farther east and later this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/31/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40437993 41577901 41977810 41927725 41767643 41217609
               40197634 39587710 39367862 39578019 39958028 40437993 

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