Mesoscale Discussion 0386
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0938 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021438Z - 021745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may begin initiating by 1-2 PM EDT, then
   pose a risk to produce severe hail and strong surface gusts through
   mid to late afternoon.  Trends are being monitored for the
   possibility that this could require a severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Convection-allowing model output is rather varied
   concerning potential convective evolution late this morning into mid
   afternoon, beneath generally zonal mid/upper flow across much of the
   Gulf of Mexico and Southeast.  Low-amplitude shortwaves within one
   belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific
   remain out of phase with the branch of mid-level westerlies to its
   north.  However, models do suggest that larger-scale mid-level flow
   may trend more broadly cyclonic through this afternoon, as a fairly
   vigorous short wave trough progresses east-southeast of the lower
   Mississippi Valley.

   Colder mid-level air (including temperatures of roughly +5 to -15C
   in the 700-500 mb layer) is in the process of spreading across the
   northern half of the Florida Peninsula.  Where surface dew points
   are now near 70F, this is expected to contribute to moderately large
   mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg within the next few
   hours.  Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with
   low-level warm advection, this might support increasing thunderstorm
   development as early as 17-18Z.

   Low-level wind fields are weak, but deep-layer shear beneath a
   strong sub-tropical jet is strong, and could contribute to the
   evolution of supercell structures.  Some of this activity may pose a
   risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts as storms intensify
   through mid to late afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/02/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29738173 29408030 27577993 27648189 28158300 28888223
               29738173