ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032219 
SPC MCD 032219 
OKZ000-TXZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwestern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 032219Z - 032345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening. Gusty winds and hail are the expected threats. Some
consideration is being given for a severe thunderstorm watch across
portions of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to a
plume of steep surface-3km lapse rates (approaching dry adiabatic)
across the TX South Plains, extending into southwestern OK. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures have been breached across
this region and latest visible satellite imagery supports this with
an expanding cu field along the dryline from west of ABI-southwest
of Vernon. Additionally, boundary-layer cu are also forming along
the cold front over Harmon County in southwest OK. While it's not
real obvious, a weak mid-level disturbance may be approaching the TX
Panhandle and this feature should assist convection that evolves
immediately ahead of a weak surface low near CDS, along the front.
Thermodynamic profiles suggest convection that evolves over the next
few hours will be high based, but adequately sheared for updraft
longevity. After sunset, sustained LLJ across west TX into eastern
OK should aid eastward propagation with activity becoming elevated
as the boundary layer cools. Gusty winds appear possible with this
high-based convection along with some hail threat.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33179994 34119965 34919955 35559884 35179792 33809840
            33009907 33179994 

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