Mesoscale Discussion 0411
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern GA and SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 051850Z - 052045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will gradually
   increase across eastern Georgia and parts of South Carolina this
   afternoon. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across
   coastal/eastern GA and parts of SC early this afternoon as a 40-50
   kt south-southwesterly low-level jet overspreads this area. Recent
   visible satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus developing across
   south-central GA. Showers are also increasing across coastal SC as
   the low-level warm advection strengthens, with more elevated
   convection occurring into central SC closer to the surface warm
   front. Supercells may develop across this region over the next
   couple of hours, well ahead of the ongoing convective line now
   entering western/southern GA. These leading cells will likely be
   surface based, as MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg should be prevalent across
   the warm sector. Effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2 and 40-50+ kt of
   deep-layer shear will likely support organized updrafts and
   low-level rotation with any discrete cells. A threat for tornadoes
   will exist given the strong low-level shear, and damaging winds may
   eventually become a threat as the line moves eastward across GA. A
   strong tornado or two also appears possible with favorably enlarged
   low-level hodographs and potentially discrete storm mode. A Tornado
   Watch will likely be needed as observational trends dictate.

   ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...

   LAT...LON   31038138 30838201 30648215 30658232 30718301 31508232
               31998216 32338215 32588196 32978219 33368220 33878151
               34048079 33918033 33667968 33167917 32707981 32098073
               31428117 31038138