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Mesoscale Discussion 413
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

   Areas affected...portions of far southern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051937Z - 052200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may develop with the stronger
   storm cores, and a couple of severe hailstones are also possible.
   Severe coverage is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A modest mid-level trough is impinging on south Texas,
   with upper support and upslope flow/strong surface heating
   contributing to convective initiation along the lee of the Sierra
   del Carmen mountain range. These storms are developing in and are
   expected to progress through a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface
   temperatures are exceeding 90F, with surface dewpoints in the 60s
   leading to 25+ temperature/dewpoint depressions and LCLs/LFCs well
   over 2000 m AGL. Given 8-9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, and nearly
   straight hodographs amid weak tropospheric flow, high-based
   single-cell and multicellular storms are expected. Efficient
   evaporative cooling may support a couple of strong wind gusts. An
   instance or two of large hail may accompany any updrafts that are
   not overwhelmed with dry-air entrainment. Given the isolated nature
   of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28560054 28910042 29219985 29619872 29619814 29299746
               28929717 28489719 28029750 27679792 27459846 27399927
               27499971 28560054 

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