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Mesoscale Discussion 413 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Areas affected...portions of far southern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051937Z - 052200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may develop with the stronger
storm cores, and a couple of severe hailstones are also possible.
Severe coverage is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A modest mid-level trough is impinging on south Texas,
with upper support and upslope flow/strong surface heating
contributing to convective initiation along the lee of the Sierra
del Carmen mountain range. These storms are developing in and are
expected to progress through a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface
temperatures are exceeding 90F, with surface dewpoints in the 60s
leading to 25+ temperature/dewpoint depressions and LCLs/LFCs well
over 2000 m AGL. Given 8-9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, and nearly
straight hodographs amid weak tropospheric flow, high-based
single-cell and multicellular storms are expected. Efficient
evaporative cooling may support a couple of strong wind gusts. An
instance or two of large hail may accompany any updrafts that are
not overwhelmed with dry-air entrainment. Given the isolated nature
of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28560054 28910042 29219985 29619872 29619814 29299746
28929717 28489719 28029750 27679792 27459846 27399927
27499971 28560054
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