ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052038 
SPC MCD 052038 
MOZ000-052315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052038Z - 052315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, with isolated severe
potential, are expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the
next few hours. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main threats,
though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not
currently anticipated given the isolated nature of the severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across Livingston
County, MO ahead of a cold front as an 80 kt mid-level jet streak
begins to overspread the Mid MS Valley. EAX/LSX VWPs and some of the
latest RAP forecast soundings depict relatively weak tropospheric
flow below 700 mb, but with modest veering, contributing to nearly
40 kts of effective bulk shear. Still, 6-7 C/km low- and mid-level
lapse rates atop lower 50s F surface dewpoints are contributing to
tall-skinny CAPE profiles. While storm coverage should increase
through the remainder of the afternoon, the mediocre speed shear and
instability should temper the severe threat to a degree. Only
isolated damaging gusts and large hailstones appear likely, and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39149442 39689418 39939371 40079316 40159257 39999193
            39509123 38549055 37719038 37399079 37339096 37299173
            37739341 38349413 39149442 

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