ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071124 
SPC MCD 071124 
FLZ000-071400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Areas affected...parts of northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071124Z - 071400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible in the near term, but
it is unclear whether coverage will necessitate a watch. A tornado
may occur any strong cells that develops. Hail may also occur.

DISCUSSION...A front currently extends from the northeast Gulf of
Mexico across northern FL, with scattered storms along it. Recently,
a supercell west of the Saint Augustine area, with prominent
midlevel rotation.

Low 70s F dewpoints are in place ahead of this line of storms,
resulting in MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is
around 50 kt, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2.

It appears a plume of higher theta-e exists ahead of the front,
evident at 850 mb on various models. Given the very moist and
uncapped air mass, only subtle lift may be needed for additional
storms. While most CAMs suggest an during the late morning, isolated
severe storms may occur before then. The area will be monitored
closely for increasing storm trends. The midlevel lapse rate over 7
C/km as well as favorably long hodograph may favor a hail threat in
addition to isolated tornadoes.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29338334 30188228 30438135 29508107 28728271 29028282
            29098306 29338334 

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