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Mesoscale Discussion 448
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

   Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas and
   south-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112146Z - 112315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected
   along the dryline this afternoon and evening. Supercells with a
   primary risk for of large hail, damaging wind gusts will be
   possible. A weather watch is possible though uncertainty remains
   high.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z, visible imagery showed deepening congestus
   towers along a dryline observed across north central Texas and
   south-central Oklahoma. To the east of the dryline, very warm
   temperatures (80s to 90s F) and deep surface moisture (dewpoints in
   the low to mid 60s F) are supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Zonal
   mid-level flow associated with a low amplitude shortwave trough
   crossing the region was enhancing mid-level shear with VWPS and
   mesoanalysis showing 40-50 kt EBWD orthogonal to the dryline. This
   in combination with deep and veering wind profiles will
   conditionally support discrete sueprcellular convection. Very steep
   mid-level lapse rates (~9 C/km) from observed and model soundings
   will favor large hail with any sustained updrafts. Damaging winds
   are also possible given the warm surface temperatures and fairly
   large T/TD spreads. The tornado risk appears lower owing to weaker
   surface flow and some low-level veering. Experimental WOFS guidance
   has shown several discrete updrafts initiating over the last few
   runs and posing a severe risk into this evening. While uncertainty
   remains high, some severe risk appears possible across south-central
   Oklahoma and north Texas this evening. Conditions are being
   monitored for a possible weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/11/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33529707 33929688 34139686 34439670 34569634 34569589
               34549554 34389509 34249492 34039473 33889451 33609425
               33339434 33109445 32649477 32199521 31489603 31249660
               31169712 31199739 31289769 31509796 31869792 32069784
               32649742 33139725 33529707 

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