ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131507 
SPC MCD 131507 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/southern AR into northeast TX
and northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 131507Z - 131630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase over the next
couple hours across parts of central/southern AR into northeast TX
and northwest LA. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible
with storms into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold
front from southeast OK into northeast TX late continues to slowly
increase in intensity this morning as the downstream airmass
recovers from overnight storms. Three-hour dewpoint increases across
the region range from 2-4 deg F. This is aiding in airmass recovery
despite widespread cloudiness and modest boundary-layer heating,
especially as steepening midlevel lapse rates shift east into the
region. Effective shear greater than 40 kt will aid in increasingly
organized convection with bowing line segments/QLCS hazards
resulting in damaging wind potential with eastward extent. Wind
speeds increasing quickly with height with 40-60 kt southwesterly
flow between 850-700 mb will support not only damaging gusts, but
QLCS mesovortex formation within the line of convection, and a few
tornadoes also are possible. If any more discrete supercells are
able to develop ahead of the line, an increased tornado threat also
would accompany this activity. As the severe threat is expected to
continue increasing over the next couple of hours, a tornado watch
will likely be needed soon in/near the MCD area.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34019443 34809375 35389318 35439290 35409262 35239216
            34729175 33979162 33169203 32499246 32159291 32079340
            32069390 32159447 32329497 32689528 33029523 33639481
            34019443 

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