Mesoscale Discussion 0535
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

   Areas affected...Far Southeast Colorado...Western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 222235Z - 230030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next hour
   across far southeast Colorado into western Kansas. Large hail, wind
   damage and an isolated tornado threat will likely accompany the
   stronger thunderstorms. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low over northern
   Colorado with a dryline from near Goodland extending southward to
   near Dalhart. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in
   the mid to upper 50s F. The RAP has MLCAPE to the east of the
   dryline in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms have developed
   just to the east of the dryline in the northwestern Texas Panhandle
   and western Oklahoma Panhandle. This convection is expected to
   continue expanding in coverage, moving north-northeastward into
   southwest Kansas over the next hour. In addition to moderate
   instability, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
   40 knot range. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
   8.0 C/km will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
   Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
   with the more intense supercells.

   The dryline is forecast to retreat early this evening as surface
   winds back to the south-southeast. As a result, a severe threat
   could impact far southeastern Colorado as well. Weather watch
   issuance will likely be needed for parts of far southeast Colorado
   and western Kansas needed soon.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/22/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   39980033 39600003 38730041 37730095 37180136 37110215
               37260240 37510241 37850238 38900203 39620168 39990107
               39980033