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Mesoscale Discussion 549 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
Areas affected...Far Southeast Minnesota...Iowa...Northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148...
Valid 240003Z - 240200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue for much of the
evening. Wind damage, hail and perhaps a brief tornado will be
possible. Weather watch issuance to the east of the current watch
remains uncertain to the east.
DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Des Moines shows
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Iowa
extending south-southwestward into northwest Missouri. The line is
located along the eastern edge of an axis of instability, with
MLCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg across much of Iowa, with a bit
stronger instability over northwest Missouri. The instability is
beneath an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet which is producing strong
deep-layer shear over much of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. This
will be favorable for organized severe storms for much of the
evening. Although supercells will be possible, QLCS will be the most
common mode. Wind damage may occur along the leading edge of the
stronger multicell line segments. A brief tornado could also occur,
associated with the most intense cell within the line. Although the
severe threat should become more isolated over the next couple of
hours, weather watch issuance still can not be ruled out to the east
of the current watch.
..Broyles.. 04/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 42949189 43669197 44089262 44079318 43789335 43619346
43279350 42969356 42649362 41999389 40479473 39819492
39679412 41279268 42949189
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