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Mesoscale Discussion 569
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0569
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of east-central South Carolina and southeast
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262152Z - 262245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will
   be possible as storms approach the coast of South Carolina and
   southern North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a few deep/sustained
   updrafts keeping pace with convective outflow moving eastward toward
   coastal SC and NC. These deeper updrafts are moving into a
   moist/well-mixed boundary-layer with steep low-level lapse rates and
   dewpoints in the upper 60s. In addition, locally backed flow ahead
   of the approaching convection is contributing to modest convergence
   and locally boosted boundary-layer SRH along the coast. These
   factors, combined with modest deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear
   near 25 knots) nearly perpendicular to the ongoing convection will
   support locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail.
   Watch issuance is not expected owing to the localized nature of the

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/26/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32697965 32667989 32747997 32958013 33237993 33577975
               33927933 34877824 35047763 34587686 33547820 32697965 

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