Mesoscale Discussion 0593
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

   Areas affected...southeast MO...northeast AR...southern IL...far
   west KY...far west TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301809Z - 302015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging
   gusts, large hail, and a couple tornadoes will increase between
   19-21Z. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A NNE-SSW oriented cold front currently draped across
   parts of central MO into west-central AR will continue shifting
   slowly eastward through the afternoon. Ahead of the front, pockets
   of diurnal heating will continue to reduce lingering CINH, while
   dewpoints increase into the middle 60s F. This will result in around
   1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which combined with increasing ascent
   along/ahead of the approaching cold front will support increasing
   convection through the afternoon. Regional VWP data shows around
   40-50 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow overspreading the area,
   which will contribute to around 40 knots of effective bulk shear as
   convection begins to mature in the presence of steepening low-level
   lapse rates. Generally weak forcing for ascent coupled with an
   oblique orientation of the deep-layer flow to the initiating
   boundary could favor initially semi-discrete supercells capable of
   damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. With time,
   convection should have a tendency to grow upscale into linear
   segments, when damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two
   will become the primary concerns. Watch issuance will likely be
   needed this afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 04/30/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36369238 36749214 37259176 37739151 38639102 38869059
               38828921 38378848 36318906 35338962 35058997 35279205
               35929256 36369238