Mesoscale Discussion 0634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of western into central Ohio and adjacent
   portions of the Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031813Z - 032000Z

   CORRECTED TIME FROM UTC TO DAYLIGHT TIME IN SUMMARY

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A few supercells may gradually develop across parts of the
   middle into upper Ohio Valley through late afternoon.  Some of these
   may pose a risk of producing tornadoes, in addition to large hail,
   including around the Dayton OH area as early as 5-6 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...A southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric speed maximum,
   and associated cyclonic vorticity center to its northwest, are in
   the process of migrating north-northeast of the Ohio River, toward
   the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region.  While the boundary
   layer across much of Ohio into the upper Ohio Valley is generally
   cool and stable,  destabilization is ongoing along and northeast of
   a warm frontal zone across southwestern Ohio, in the immediate wake
   of the initial perturbation.

   With the primary upstream mid-level short wave trough turning east
   of the middle Mississippi Valley, the warm sector of an associated
   surface cyclone appears likely to continue to attempt to spread
   northeastward across Ohio.  Through 21-22Z, it appears that the warm
   frontal zone may become a focus for increasing boundary-layer
   destabilization and intensifying thunderstorm development near the
   Dayton OH area.  This is where latest Rapid Refresh forecast
   soundings suggest that at least some backing and strengthening of
   flow around 850 mb may contribute to enlarging clockwise curved
   hodographs.  It appears that the environment may become conducive to
   supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes, in addition to
   severe hail, with a tendency to gradually develop east-northeastward
   into early evening.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40188484 40918347 40468213 39638225 38998340 38368461
               40188484