ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041756 
SPC MCD 041756 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-042030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern VA and northeastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041756Z - 042030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of a few strong to severe storms capable of
localized wind damage and isolated large hail will increase through
the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an
east/west-oriented deepening cumulus field developing in
southeastern VA, where isolated convection is beginning to develop.
In the vicinity of this boundary, surface temperatures in the lower
80s amid upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate to strong
surface-based buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates. Despite weak
south-southwesterly surface winds, regional VWP data shows
strengthening midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreading the
area which should support 20-30 kt effective bulk shear. 

While limited large-scale ascent and only modest deep-layer shear
casts uncertainty on the coverage and sustenance of convection,
present indications are that a few loosely organized multicell
clusters or transient supercell structures capable of isolated large
hail and locally damaging gusts will spread eastward toward the
coast through the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected at this
time.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37547570 36887572 36527583 36477574 36327671 36227798
            36277866 36677885 37057890 37467866 37737818 37897773
            37997714 38017644 37977602 37547570 

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