ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071933 
SPC MCD 071933 
NDZ000-SDZ000-072130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of western and central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071933Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds
into this evening across parts of western and central North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop southward across
western ND over the next couple of hours ahead of an
eastward-advancing surface boundary as stronger large-scale ascent
spreads eastward from eastern MT. Cloud cover has limited surface
heating somewhat, but dewpoints in the 50s beneath very steep
midlevel lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Due to
a lack of heating, MLCINH likely will not completely erode, and
storms may tend to be elevated.  However, midlevel lapse rates
around 8-8.5 C/km and effective shear magnitudes will support at
least briefly organized cells capable of hail. While a couple more
discrete cells are possible, convection may develop into clusters or
line segments with eastward extent. While some inhibition will
likely limit stronger gust potential, stronger convection may
produce locally strong winds. Given the overall marginal nature of
the severe threat, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   49000274 49010124 48960028 48369977 47139932 46469920
            46149925 45979958 45920034 45970122 46170185 47290213
            47540227 48260249 48640281 48860288 49000274 

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