ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090013 
SPC MCD 090013 
NDZ000-090145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022

Areas affected...Southeast ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090013Z - 090145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell or two may affect parts of southeast North
Dakota this evening, with a threat of hail and perhaps a brief
tornado. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm over Stutsman County, ND has recently
shown signs of intensification and improved organization. This cell
is moving into an environment of relatively greater low-level
moisture and MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Rather strong
midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 40-50 kt, sufficient
for potential supercell development. Cool temperatures aloft (around
-20 C at 500 mb) will support an isolated hail threat. While
low-level flow/shear is weak, enhanced low-level vorticity near a
weak downstream convergence zone may support a brief tornado threat
if supercell development is sustained into this region. 

The threat for surface-based supercells should diminish with time
later this evening, as nocturnal cooling results in increasing
MLCINH. Due to the limited spatial extent and duration of this
threat, watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47009902 47299760 46839736 46449740 46239758 46359925
            46789934 47009902 

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