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Mesoscale Discussion 708
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0708
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of far northeast Iowa into central and
   southern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101745Z - 102015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered thunderstorms capable of
   large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes
   will increase between 19Z-21Z. A watch will likely be needed for
   parts of the area this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a
   northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-stationary baroclinic zone
   extending across central WI. Along and south of the boundary, strong
   diurnal heating of an increasingly moist boundary layer (upper
   60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
   is contributing to a strongly unstable airmass. While southerly
   surface winds will generally be weak across the warm sector, the
   eventual development of a weak frontal wave along the boundary could
   support subtle warm advection and slightly backed surface flow
   across the warm sector. 

   Despite negligible large-scale ascent characterized by neutral to
   slight midlevel height rises across the area, water vapor imagery
   shows a belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft -- supporting
   30-45 kt of effective shear amid the destabilizing airmass. Isolated
   to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
   baroclinic zone and spread east-northeastward this afternoon.
   Initially, discrete to semi-discrete supercell structures will be
   capable of isolated large to very large hail and damaging wind
   gusts, though small, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs could
   support a tornado or two with the more organized/discrete
   supercells. With time, storms should gradually grow upscale with
   eastward extent amid minimal CINH, when damaging winds and sporadic
   large hail will be the primary concerns. A watch will likely be
   needed this afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 05/10/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43699125 44269094 44999018 45278965 45468866 45298818
               44638798 44078795 43288820 42988858 42818899 42709004
               42659077 42749114 43259139 43699125 

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