Mesoscale Discussion 0709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Areas affected...parts of southwest Texas into the South
Plains...extreme eastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101950Z - 102215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form by around 21Z over southwest
Texas, with increasing coverage through the evening across the
Panhandle, South Plains, and eventually southwest Oklahoma and
northwest Texas. Damaging hail and wind will be possible.
DISCUSSION...GPS precipitable water sensors show increasing values
across the region, where strong heating is also resulting in mixing
of the boundary layer. Value have doubled to around 1.00" over the
South Plains, and visible imagery shows an expanding CU field
coincident with the moisture surge. Dewpoints into the 60s F are
contributing to strong MLCAPE, with 4000 J/kg south of a Vernon to
Convergence within the boundary layer is very weak, with difluent
winds in some areas currently. However, continued heating and influx
of moisture westward should result in scattered storms in the
uncapped air mass after about 22 or 23Z. Lack of shear should result
in clusters of storms producing substantial outflow, eventually
propagating into southwest OK into northwest TX through about 06Z.
Large hail will also be likely initially given extreme instability,
but the primary threat should transition to wind as storms merge.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29300401 30450410 32730353 34170227 34670141 34740088
34700031 34570011 34149992 33599999 33480006 32710051
31580105 30500146 29730183 29780223 29840231 29720234
29690267 29230278 28900310 28910332 29090357 29190387