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Mesoscale Discussion 709
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0709
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas of southwest Texas into the South
   Plains...extreme eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101950Z - 102215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form by around 21Z over southwest
   Texas, with increasing coverage through the evening across the
   Panhandle, South Plains, and eventually southwest Oklahoma and
   northwest Texas. Damaging hail and wind will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...GPS precipitable water sensors show increasing values
   across the region, where strong heating is also resulting in mixing
   of the boundary layer. Value have doubled to around 1.00" over the
   South Plains, and visible imagery shows an expanding CU field
   coincident with the moisture surge. Dewpoints into the 60s F are
   contributing to strong MLCAPE, with 4000 J/kg south of a Vernon to
   Midland line.

   Convergence within the boundary layer is very weak, with difluent
   winds in some areas currently. However, continued heating and influx
   of moisture westward should result in scattered storms in the
   uncapped air mass after about 22 or 23Z. Lack of shear should result
   in clusters of storms producing substantial outflow, eventually
   propagating into southwest OK into northwest TX through about 06Z.
   Large hail will also be likely initially given extreme instability,
   but the primary threat should transition to wind as storms merge.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/10/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29300401 30450410 32730353 34170227 34670141 34740088
               34700031 34570011 34149992 33599999 33480006 32710051
               31580105 30500146 29730183 29780223 29840231 29720234
               29690267 29230278 28900310 28910332 29090357 29190387

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