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Mesoscale Discussion 710
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0710
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of Upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102057Z - 102200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail will be possible across
   parts of Upper Michigan this afternoon. Watch issuance is not

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MQT shows a few elevated
   supercell structures spreading east-northeastward across portions of
   Upper Michigan this afternoon. 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow
   (per regional VWP data) is contributing to favorable deep-layer
   shear for the maintenance of these supercell structures, and modest
   diurnal heating amid lower 60s surface dewpoints could support
   pockets of surface-based inflow. While isolated large hail is the
   primary concern, any storms that can root in the boundary layer
   could pose a locally damaging wind gust risk. Watch issuance is not

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 05/10/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46568707 46328736 46158799 46148842 46168907 46388936
               46698934 46968888 47038851 47068808 46958761 46568707 

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